Issued on 17 November 2024 at 5:00 AM, life-threatening conditions continue over the Eastern Section of Southern Luzon as "Pepito" moves over the sea of East of Bicol Region.
Heavy Rainfall Outlook Refer to Weather Advisory No. 49 issued at 5:00 AM today for the three-day heavy rainfall outlook associated with "Pepito".
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
* Extreme impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 5.
* Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
* Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 3.
* Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
* Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak surge heights exceeding 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Region (western coast), Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Samar, and Eastern Samar. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 9 issued at 2:00 AM today for the details.
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern, western, and southern seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Visayas. Refer to Gale Warning No. 13 issued at 5:00 AM yesterday for the details.
Note: These are forecast sea condition over the coastal waters and not related to storm surge heights or inundation.
Up to very rough, high, or very high seas over the following coastal waters:
* Up to 14.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboard of Aurora
* Up to 12.0 m: The seaboard of Camarines Norte * Up to 10.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur
* Up to 9.0 m: The seaboard of northern Quezon * Up to 8.0 m: The seaboard of Isabela; the remaining seaboards of Polillo Islands and Catanduanes; the eastern seaboard of Camarines Sur
* Up to 5.0 m: The eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Albay
* Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Sorsogon and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar; the remaining seaboards of Camarines Sur, Albay, and Quezon; the seaboards of Ilocos Region, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, and Marinduque
* Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
* Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes, northern Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Zambales
* Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Romblon; the remaining seaboards of Zambales; the eastern seaboard of Oriental Mindoro
* Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
* Up to 2.5 m: The western seaboard of Bataan; the eastern seaboard of Dinagat Islands
* Up to 2.0 m: The seaboards of Metro Manila, Aklan, Antique, northeastern Iloilo, northern Negros Occidental, northern Cebu including Bantayan Islands, and Biliran; the northern and eastern seaboards of Leyte; the eastern seaboards of Southern Leyte, Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental; the northern and western seaboards of Dinagat Islands; the remaining seaboards of Bataan and CALABARZON; the northern seaboards of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands and Oriental Mindoro.
* Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
* "Pepito" will move west northwestward over the waters north of Camarines Provinces (with a landfall or close approach over Calaguas Islands not ruled out) this morning. It will then pass close or over Polillo Islands by late morning, before making landfall over northern Quezon or central or southern Aurora between this noon and afternoon. Afterwards, "Pepito" will cross the northern portion of Central Luzon and the southern portion of Northern Luzon along the upland areas of Sierra Madre, Caraballo, and Cordillera Central between this afternoon and evening. "Pepito" will emerge over the coastal waters of Pangasinan or La Union tonight or tomorrow (18 November) early morning.
* Over the West Philippine Sea, "Pepito" will continue moving west northwestward tomorrow. It may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning or afternoon. Outside the PAR region, the tropical cyclone will turn more westward or west southwestward on Tuesday (19 November).
* It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to "Other Hazards affecting Land Areas" for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
* "Pepito" is forecast to slightly weaken as a typhoon over Aurora. Significant weakening will occur during the passage of tropical cyclone over mainland Luzon today, but it will likely remain as a typhoon throughout its passage over mainland Luzon.
The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data 85 km Northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte (14.6 °N, 123.6 °E) moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h with a maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 255 km/h.
Source: DOST-PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
A total of 462,194 families or 1,738,498 persons are affected in 3,261 barangays in Regions I, II, III, MIMAROPA, V, VIII, and CAR (see Annex A).