The comparisons between Wisconsin and Nebraska have picked up steam in recent months, and not for reasons that enthuse either fan base. They are two proud programs struggling to gain traction amid a changing college football landscape. And when the Badgers and Cornhuskers meet Saturday at Memorial Stadium at 2:30 p.m. CT, they'll be two 5-5 teams battling for bowl eligibility for a second consecutive season.
That's not the place either program aspires to be. But it's the reality of the situation for teams seeking to establish an identity under second-year coaches that seem to share more similarities than differences.
Nebraska's Matt Rhule demoted offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield and brought in Dana Holgorsen as his replacement last week. Wisconsin's Luke Fickell fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo on Sunday and has a big decision to make about the direction of the offense. More and more, people are beginning to wonder whether the Badgers -- who shifted away from some of the staples that defined the program's success -- are becoming the new Huskers.
As both programs attempt to get over the hump, The Athletic wants to explore a simple question ahead of the matchup: Who would you rather be now and for the next three years? Wisconsin beat writer Jesse Temple and Nebraska beat writer Mitch Sherman break it down.
This is the single biggest roster question Wisconsin must answer because the position is too important to have an underwhelming performer in place. The quarterback room figures to look different next season with Longo no longer the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. This season, Wisconsin has been hampered by an injury to starter Tyler Van Dyke, who tore the ACL in his right knee during the third game against Alabama. Backup Braedyn Locke, who took his place, ranks 16th in the Big Ten with a 55.1 percent completion rate and has thrown at least one interception in all seven of his starts. Locke, still a redshirt sophomore, transferred to Wisconsin from Mississippi State because of Longo and does not appear to be the long-term answer for Wisconsin.
Who is? Van Dyke would have another year of eligibility remaining given the timing of his injury, but there's no guarantee he'll be ready for next season. True freshman Mabrey Mettauer hasn't surpassed Locke in practice to earn game snaps. Wisconsin is in the mix for four-star 2025 top-15 quarterback Carter Smith, who visited campus last weekend. The Badgers also may be forced to do something Fickell has said he doesn't want to do -- go to the transfer portal for a third consecutive offseason.
Right now is an inconvenient moment to assess Nebraska. Everything looks more dismal than six weeks ago after the Huskers started 5-1. And the QB situation is no exception. True freshman Dylan Raiola was riding high, the picture of promise. He evoked comparisons to Patrick Mahomes, by design or not, in throwing nine touchdowns with three interceptions in the first half of the season. Since then, he's tossed seven picks and thrown two touchdowns in a four-game losing streak.
Big Ten defenses have disrupted Raiola's rhythm. He's held the ball too long and forced throws while playing through injuries. He's suffered from poor wide receiver play and the lack of a big threat in the running game. His 6.8 yards per attempt rank 94th nationally. More than anything, Raiola has looked often like a freshman.
The talent remains. And his devotion to his craft has never come into question.
"How can he process all this information as a freshman?" Holgorsen said this week, revisiting his first thoughts on observing Raiola at work.
Holgorsen, a proven groomer of quarterbacks, and Raiola can thrive at Nebraska. No guarantees exist, though, beyond this month. Make no mistake, Holgorsen is at Nebraska in large part to coach Raiola. If they commit to a future together in Lincoln, it figures to be bright.
In the transfer portal era, it's hard to know what any team will have on the roster the following season. But there appear to be key building blocks on which Wisconsin can lean, particularly offensively. It starts with running back, where the program brought in a pair of four-star prospects in the 2024 class with Darrion Dupree and Dilin Jones. Dupree, a dynamic runner and pass catcher, has elevated into the backup role as a true freshman. Several of the team's top wide receivers will have eligibility remaining after this season, including Vinny Anthony, Will Pauling, CJ Williams and Trech Kekahuna. And Wisconsin has made great strides in adding depth along the offensive line, though the Badgers could lose as many as four starters this offseason.
It's trickier to project the defense, which lists seven seniors as starters, as well as junior and potential NFL Draft hopeful Ricardo Hallman at cornerback. Wisconsin's defense was outstanding last Saturday against No. 1 Oregon, which is a sign that perhaps some of the pieces could be coming together after several disappointing results. There is good young talent on the roster, including freshman cornerback Xavier Lucas and sophomore inside linebacker Christian Alliegro, who has 26 tackles in his last two games. Outside linebackers Darryl Peterson and Leon Lowery and defensive back Austin Brown could return as key playmakers, though there will need to be some retooling along the defensive line.
Talent's not been the issue at Nebraska. Retention of talent? That's a different story, though Rhule in two offseasons with the Huskers has held his roster together well. The months ahead present a new challenge as Nebraska faces unique problems related to the House Settlement-mandated 105-player roster cap.
Nebraska must make deep cuts to trim its roster of approximately 150 players. Rhule shudders at the thought of eliminating space, but he's got no options. Tumult on the horizon figures to disrupt some of the harmony that has existed on his watch. The Huskers lose a senior class full of key players from a team that's still fighting to reach bowl eligibility.
But if Rhule can keep most of the players he wants, Nebraska has solid young talent at QB and wide receiver. Its returning linebackers and 2025 commitments at the position form a strong core for the defense. Nebraska must add pieces via the transfer portal on the offensive line and at running back, perhaps among other spots.
How will it look when the dust settles? There's reason to feel optimistic. But it's too early to say.
The first two seasons at Wisconsin under Fickell have been eye-opening, for him and everybody else. Upon arrival, he praised what he thought Wisconsin's culture was from afar. But he didn't truly understand the challenge he faced on a variety of fronts until the games began. Fickell, 12-11 overall and 8-8 in the Big Ten since last season, clearly is frustrated with the lack of results. He has the backing of athletic director Chris McIntosh, who hired Fickell two years ago. But Wisconsin needs more wins to instill confidence that Fickell can lead the turnaround people hoped for. How Wisconsin responds against Nebraska will be important to show players are still willing to fight for him.
Fickell has to get his next offensive coordinator hire correct because head coaches don't often receive a third crack at it. More of a power-spread approach likely makes sense given what Fickell wants for the program. Defensive coordinator Mike Tressel has had uneven results, but he showed against Oregon that he can compile a game plan that suits the strengths of the roster.
Much more so than a year ago after Rhule's first season, a sense exists that change is coming. The OC move has happened. Some fallout in the winter from the Holgorsen hire is inevitable. If he elects to stay and coordinate the offense in 2025, Holgorsen will have some say in assembling an offensive staff. And it's highly likely that it won't look like the group that's in place.
If Holgorsen jumps to another OC job or lands a head-coaching gig, Rhule will have to start over in building an offensive plan.
Defensively, coordinator Tony White was a hot name on the coaching carousel a year ago. He elected to stay and got a big bump in pay to $1.6 million. The addition of secondary coach John Butler in July from the NFL has led to changes that have not always meshed well with White's system. Adjustments are required to get the defense back on track.
And while the special teams play has stabilized amid the Huskers' losing streak, it's still not up to speed in production. Rhule has the flexibility to make moves without firing coaches. Some level of staff makeover appears imminent.
This is the area in which Fickell has done best because of a staff that is relentless in its attempt to upgrade the roster. Wisconsin has extended its recruiting reach under Fickell and, during his first full recruiting class in 2024, signed 11 four-star 247Sports Composite players -- a record in the online ranking era. That class ranked No. 23, the second-best mark for the program. The 2025 class has six four-star players and ranks No. 29, provided Wisconsin can hang on until the early signing period as Fickell finds a new offensive coordinator. Recruiting hasn't yielded better on-field results yet, but the hope is that those players can form the backbone of a future program rise.
The Huskers' 20-player class for 2025 ranks 20th nationally. Defensive skill leads the way, headlined by four-star linebackers Dawson Merritt of Overland Park (Kan.) Blue Valley and Christian Jones of Omaha Westside. Nebraska remains in the running to flip multiple four-star prospects before Dec. 4. Rhule and coaches before him at Nebraska have consistently signed classes that ranked in the top 25 to 30 nationally. Turning that talent into winning teams has proven elusive.
There's no question NIL payments will continue to be a separator in roster management and building. Schools will have a revenue-sharing model to directly pay all of their athletes roughly $22 million beginning next year. Beyond that, Wisconsin does have The Varsity Collective on which it has leaned. Wisconsin may not be at the top in the NIL marketplace, but the Badgers believe they're competitive. The Badgers certainly have invested in the coaching staff, with Fickell's average annual salary of $7.8 million ranking in the top 20 nationally. Wisconsin also has a $285 million indoor practice facility on the horizon, with construction scheduled to begin next year.
Nebraska's got all that it needs and more in resources to win now -- and to win in the years ahead. The opening this year of the Osborne Legacy Complex, built for $165 million, provides luxurious training accommodations and a headquarters for the football program that's on par with the best nationally. Rhule has an NFL-like staff in size and distribution of responsibility. Nebraska is well positioned in the worlds of NIL and revenue sharing. And it's embarking on a project to be unveiled after the football season by athletic director Troy Dannen to modernize Memorial Stadium.