College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
The penultimate weekend of the regular season has put the brightest spotlights on Indiana-Ohio State, BYU-Arizona State and Army-Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium, just like Curt Cignetti predicted back in the summer.
The delightfully unpredictable first season of the 12-team College Football Playoff has introduced Coach Cig and so many others to the national stage. In the SEC alone, the CFP possibilities remain extensive. The league where it just means more has matchups with UMass, UTEP and Wofford this week, but there are also conference games with CFP implications involving Ole Miss, Alabama, Texas and Texas A&M. Sorting out the best in the SEC has become a weekly exercise.
But there's so much else to snack on, including national coach of the year candidates such as Indiana's Cignetti, Colorado's Deion Sanders, Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham and Army's Jeff Monken, who all face critical matchups this week. If Monken's Army team upsets No. 6 Notre Dame in New York, it will have a good shot at reaching the CFP. If Sanders and Dillingham get wins Saturday, they will remain on track to meet in the Big 12 title game with teams picked 11th and 16th (last) in the conference's preseason poll.
This has been a season in which conference newcomers have made big splashes, nontraditional Heisman Trophy contenders have emerged and many new fan bases have remained engaged with the CFP chase. Rivalry week is just around the corner, but there is some business to get to first.
College football insiders Heather Dinich and Adam Rittenberg have been talking to sources about the top CFP contenders, best coaching performances and key matchups heading into Week 13.
Rittenberg: Oregon, but just by a bit. I thought Oregon would struggle in one of its long road trips, and that happened at Wisconsin. The Ducks struggled to stretch the field or finish drives, although quarterback Dillon Gabriel made some key plays down the stretch. Texas went to Arkansas, where Tennessee lost, but didn't suffer the same fate, thanks to its playmaking defense and a ball-control offense in the fourth quarter. Coach Steve Sarkisian told me "our defense traveled," as Texas remained the only SEC team without a road loss. Defensive tackle Alfred Collins and cornerback Jahdae Barron both had takeaways. Barron is tied for the team lead with three interceptions and has a team-high seven pass breakups.
"Here's a guy that could have left last year to go to the NFL, and he's reaping the benefits of staying in school," Sarkisian said. "The playmaking ability, he has a versatility that he's playing corner and base defense. We go to dime, he's playing linebacker, he's blitzing, he's sacking the quarterback, so we're reaping the benefits of his versatility as well."
Texas' offense scored only 20 points at Arkansas but drained the final 6:55 on a 14-play drive after Collins' forced fumble. "The one thing that this group has is versatility," Sarkisian said. "We can go a lot of different directions. When your quarterback is hurt, or you lose two running backs, or you lose your slot receiver, we can adjust and we can shift, and we can still maintain really good offensive football. That's the fun part."
Dinich: Everyone has had "that game" this year, in which they've struggled or won ugly, and it was only a matter of time before Oregon took its turn. This was it, and it wasn't surprising considering that it's always tricky to play at Wisconsin regardless of the Badgers' record. At some point, teams deserve credit for finding ways to win, and Oregon was able to do it with its defense. The CFP selection committee also considers injuries to key players, and the Ducks were without star wide receiver Tez Johnson and defensive end Jordan Burch. With Oregon already having clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game, it should be a lock for the CFP even if it loses in the conference championship game -- as long as it doesn't also lose to Washington. If it does lose to Washington and doesn't win the Big Ten, though, everything we thought we knew about the CFP pecking order will change.
Dinich: Dillingham told me this week that he'd be lying if he didn't say he exceeded his own expectations this season -- but the truth is he also doesn't operate with end-of-season goals at the forefront of his mind. The reason they are in a position to win the Big 12, though, is a combination of improvement on both sides and also a chemistry in the locker room he said is genuine.
"They're competitive and they're good people," he said. "They like each other. They hang out with each other. They're all super competitive. I think those are the two most important things for us right now."
It has taken some time for the Sun Devils to find their identity and the best ways to get their playmakers the ball.
"Our pass pro has gotten drastically better on the offensive line," he said. "Our offensive line has done a phenomenal job. Defensively, it's run fits and really just our fits in general -- playing team football. We're leveraging the ball way better than we did earlier in the year, especially in the passing game. So just playing team football and understanding that it works if we all work together."
Rittenberg: Born in 1990, Dillingham is the youngest Power 4 coach by four years, but I've always called him a young old guy, and he agrees with the description. Before returning to his alma mater, Dillingham had worked in different areas of the country -- Memphis, Auburn, Florida State, Oregon -- and for notable coaches in Mike Norvell, Gus Malzahn and Dan Lanning. He had seen a lot. His readiness for a job like Arizona State, facing NCAA sanctions and an awful roster situation, belied his youth.
Look at how he reacts when talented players transfer. You don't hear him whining about the good old days, when coaches had complete control of the sport. Dillingham still makes mistakes, like all coaches, but he's truly a coach for these times and for an ASU program that really needed one of its own.
The really exciting part is ASU's talent level should only rise if the school continues to invest in Dillingham and his staff. As Dillingham recently told me, "We're not there yet. We're just finding ways to win."
Dinich: The fact that we are even talking about Arizona State and the CFP is a direct result of the opportunity the 12-team field presents to the five highest-ranked conference champions. Dillingham said it "puts the brand on the map a little bit."
"It shows people that, man, you can go to Arizona State, you can sign with Arizona State and live in an unbelievable city and compete at the highest level of college football," he said. "You can do both. You don't have to go to a small town, or a perennial powerhouse, go to a blueblood in order to compete anymore. You can compete anywhere, right? And that's the exciting part."
Rittenberg: Dillingham's motto is "Activate the Valley," and the excitement for this week's game against BYU is approaching 1996 Jake "The Snake" Plummer levels. The team's success takes me back to Big 12 media days in Las Vegas, where running back Cam Skattebo told us, "We don't have a ton of big-name guys, but a lot of scrappers, guys that can play football at a good level, at a high level, and they're super quiet and kind of just grind." Skattebo, one of ASU's few bright spots in 2023, changed his body to increase his speed, which has helped him rank second nationally this season behind Ashton Jeanty in broken tackles (42) and forced missed tackles (72).
Rittenberg: The approach actually starts with stopping the run. I don't think enough people realize that Indiana, under a first-year coaching staff and with a bunch of new players, leads the FBS in rush defense (72.2 ypg), giving up more than seven yards fewer than any other team. The Hoosiers are second behind Ole Miss in yards per carry allowed (2.46), and their most amazing stat is just 31 rush yards allowed before first contact, best in the FBS by 144 yards. Indiana must contain running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, and swarm a Buckeyes offensive line that just lost starting center Seth McLaughlin to injury.
Quarterback Kurtis Rourke and the offense have generated attention, but Cignetti's best James Madison teams were known for defense, and he brought several key front seven players -- linemen James Carpenter and Mikail Kamara, and linebackers Aiden Fisher and Jailin Walker -- with him to IU. Kent State transfer CJ West and others have really helped.
"All those guys that they took from JMU, they hit, spot on," a Big Ten offensive coordinator told me. "They're really good players, and they're just good system players. They're not going to have any high [NFL] draft picks, but they got a bunch of guys that play together."
"Jeremiah's been working hard all year to not just be a really talented receiver," Day said, "but be somebody who's a technician out there and is ready to play in these big games."
"How do you defend him?" Cignetti said, "Well, he's part of the pass game, so if you want to defend the pass game, you've got to put pressure on the quarterback, get him off-rhythm. And then nice tight coverage, ball in the air skills, good tackling. He's a tremendous football player, there's no doubt."
Cignetti told me the Hoosiers are "very process-driven," and aren't getting caught up in the magnitude of the game. He says he wants to "be balanced, be good in critical situations, score touchdowns in the red zone, win the line of scrimmage, stop the run, pressure the quarterback, swarm the ball, tackle, tight coverage and create turnovers."
Here's a few keys to the game:
Day said the Buckeyes are averaging about 63 plays per game -- below the 80 he saw when he first arrived in Columbus -- but that's not a bad thing.
"But I also think we've controlled games more by running the football," he said. "By huddling, you cut down on the number of plays, which is good for the overall health of the team in a long season. It may not be as sexy, but we didn't play bad in the Oregon game ... some things we learned on defense in that game we had to get fixed for sure."
Ohio State and Indiana are so evenly matched statistically on offense, both coaches agreed the team that makes more big plays and fewer mistakes will have the edge. IU has had 54 plays over 20 yards this season, and Ohio State has had 49.
"The turnovers are important, the rushing yards are important, explosive plays become critical," Day said. "Those are huge. Then there's game-changing plays you've got to win."
Dinich: It's hard to believe Colorado could be underrated, but the reality is the Buffaloes seemed to generate more attention when they were losing than they are right now with a chance to reach the CFP. This is a team that went 1-8 in conference play last year and lost eight of its last nine games. Now there's more chatter about Deion Sanders and his next coaching job (which he downplayed this week) than there is about the turnaround and the possibility of the Buffaloes crashing the playoff party. At No. 16 in the latest ranking, Colorado is still a two-loss team that has a lot to prove -- starting on Saturday against a Kansas team that has relished the role of spoiler. But the fact that Buffaloes are even in the mix should be earning them more attention than the Dallas Cowboys.
Rittenberg: There's surprisingly less attention on Colorado now that the Buffs are doing so well, but SMU is really being overlooked at the national level, perhaps less so in the ACC after strong performances against Pitt and Boston College. Those who followed my future power rankings series in the offseason saw SMU appear for quarterbacks, offenses, defenses and in the overall team rundown. The Mustangs returned most of their core players from their AAC championship team. Even the quarterback change they would make in September from Preston Stone to Kevin Jennings wasn't totally jarring. Jennings had replaced an injured Stone in the 2023 AAC title game.
"The core group this year was here last year," SMU coach Rhett Lashlee told ESPN. "They've won 18 out of their last 20 games. They've created a culture where they just expect to win. They don't even consider an alternative, in a very just humble but confident way. And that way, when games get tight or even we get behind, they just keep playing, and they don't panic. So there's a good maturity there."
Lashlee noted how SMU went 2-2 in nonconference play last season, only to sweep its AAC schedule. The Mustangs dropped a Week 2 game to BYU but haven't lost an ACC game in their first season in the conference. Although top-ranked Oregon, No. 3 Texas and others are having strong first seasons in new conferences, "We changed leagues and changed levels, so it's a little different," Lashlee noted.
SMU's strength might be its lack of stars, Lashlee said. Although Jennings and running back Brashard Smith (1,206 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns) are gaining attention, SMU doesn't have a top-10 receiver in the ACC. Though several defenders have very good numbers, none are earth-shattering.
"The best thing is we don't rely on one guy on either side of the ball," Lashlee said.