Bill Speltz
Welp, here we are with yet another home game for the Montana Grizzlies Saturday.
The Griz will total seven prior to their regular-season finale at Montana State next week. Montana's opponent this week, the Portland State Vikings, will only play four home games this season (they had five scheduled but lost one due to a whooping cough situation).
I feel good for all the Griz players and fans and bad for Portland State's players. By the same token, maybe the Vikings would rather compete in front of a large crowd in Missoula than a tiny one in Hillsboro, Oregon.
In case you hadn't heard, Montana has a school-record eight home games next season. That's cool and all but I hope we're all striving for a level playing field here. No winner wants to be accused of having an unfair advantage.
Whether Saturday's Montana-Portland State game is played in Missoula or Oregon or northern Alaska, it's hard to imagine the Grizzlies losing. Just so much on the line for them and nothing but pride hanging in the balance for a Vikings program that is suffering through its ninth-straight losing season.
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Portland State coach Bruce Barnum is in his 10th year at the helm. Back in 2015, he led his team to a 9-2 record, a top-10 ranking and the playoffs. He was named FCS National Coach of the Year and Big Sky Conference Coach of the Year.
Since then, there's not much to crow about. A win over the Grizzlies would make his season but Portland State just isn't good enough on defense to get it done.
The game of the week -- actually the game of the season when it comes to the Big Sky Conference -- will be played in Davis, California, on Saturday night. It's a de facto championship game between the Aggies and Montana State Bobcats. All Big Sky fans will be interested in that one, including many in Missoula.
It feels like a toss-up, which makes it even more fun. Then a week from Saturday comes the Brawl of the Wild, which is always a hoot.
Here's a look at this Saturday's league games:
Portland State (2-4, 2-7) at No. 10 Montana (4-2, 7-3), 1 p.m. TV: Scripps Sports. The Vikings rank dead last in the Big Sky in points allowed per game. Actually it's not even close, with PSU surrendering an average of 44.4. To put that in perspective, Montana's sometimes-shaky defense allows roughly 20 fewer points per game on average. Portland State does have the ability to score a lot of points if the offense is clicking. The Vikings scored 58 in a win at Sac State two weeks ago and 30 in a home loss to Idaho last week. But that offense may not be clicking in front of a loud crowd at Washington-Grizzly Stadium. Speltz: Griz 38, Vikings 28. Gogola: Montana 38, Portland State 27. Flores: Griz 31, PSU 24.
No. 2 Montana State (6-0, 10-0) at No. 4 UC Davis (6-0, 9-1), 6 p.m. TV: Scripps Sports/ESPN+. The three 406 MT Sports football prognosticators had it all wrong last week in picking Montana to beat Davis. But hey, Vegas had it wrong too. The Aggies proved they're for real and now they have just one more giant hurdle to winning the Big Sky title: The undefeated Bobcats. To me the key to this game is whether or not Davis can contain Montana State's amazing running game. The Cats average 331 yards per game on the ground, which is more than 100 yards better than the next-best Big Sky rushing team. The Aggies allow just 3.6 yards per rush on average, which is tops in the league. But MSU quarterback Tommy Mellott is just going to be too tough for the Aggies to contain with his scrambling and passing. Speltz: Cats 35, Aggies 31. Gogola: Montana State 41, UC Davis 31. Flores: Cats 38, Davis 31.
No. 25 Northern Arizona (4-2, 6-4) at Northern Colorado (1-5, 1-9), noon. The surging Lumberjacks have won three in a row and are in position to earn a playoff berth with a strong finish. They're actually tied with Montana and Idaho for third place in the Big Sky standings. Not many outside of Flagstaff expected that with two regular season games remaining. NAU probably won't have any trouble with a UNC team that's lost three in a row. Then next week the Jacks will have a lot riding on their final regular season home game against high-scoring Eastern Washington. Speltz: Jacks 37, Bears 14. Gogola: Northern Arizona 35, Northern Colorado 13. Flores: NAU 28, UNC 10.
Idaho State (3-3, 5-5) at Eastern Washington (2-4, 3-7), 2 p.m. This is a tough one. The Bengals are coming off a nice road win over rival Weber State. The Eagles steamrolled at Northern Colorado last week and seem to play everyone tough at home, including Montana and Montana State. I'm going with Eastern Washington to win on senior day, but I'm not real confident in my pick. Call it a hunch. Speltz: Eagles 40, Bengals 38. Gogola: Eastern Washington 45, Idaho State 42. Flores: EWU 42, ISU 38.
Sacramento State (1-5, 3-7) at Cal Poly (1-5, 2-7), 3 p.m. TV: ESPN+. In a matchup of teams tied for last in the league standings, I'll go with the Hornets. They at least looked decent in October before falling on hard times. Cal Poly has lost five in a row and the last two weeks they've been beaten handily at home. Speltz: Hornets 38, Mustangs 28. Gogola: Sacramento State 34, Cal Poly 17. Flores: Cal Poly 20, Sac State 17.
Weber State (2-4, 3-7) at No. 8 Idaho (4-2, 7-3), 6 p.m. TV: ESPN+. The Vandals have won three in a row and they will improve their playoff draw with a pair of wins to end the regular season. That's more than enough incentive for them to beat the struggling Wildcats. Weber State has lost four in a row since beating Montana at Washington-Grizzly Stadium. The skid started with an inexplicable home setback against Northern Colorado on Oct. 12. The Wildcats have been erratic on offense. They scored 55 against Montana and 48 in a loss at Sac State. But they were held to six points in their most recent road game at NAU. They're hard to figure. Speltz: Vandals 37, Wildcats 27. Gogola: Idaho 31, Weber State 20. Flores: Idaho 27, Weber 9.
Bill Speltz is Missoulian sports editor. Contact him at [email protected] or on Twitter @billspeltz
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