Simple Flying has previously reported that Russia has set the target of producing 1,000 passenger aircraft of all types by 2030. However, by the end of 2024, almost three years after the crippling sanctions, Russia has yet to deliver a single passenger aircraft (apart from a handful of Sukhoi Superjets that were completed with stockpiled parts received before the sanctions ). With more information emerging about Russia's civil aviation industry, it is apparent it remains crippled.
According to the Russian website, Kommersant, Russia is massively scaling back the number of engines it is planning to produce (these engines are critical for the production of new aircraft).
Russian scrambling to Russify aircraft
Russia is scrambling to substitute imported components in its indigenously produced aircraft with Russian-made components. But this is easier said than done. While Russia continues to produce fighter jets, Il-76 military transports, and helicopters, it is a shadow of what the Soviet Union once was.
Photo: BeAvPhoto l Shutterstock
One could also question if aircraft like the MC-21 and the Sukhoi Superjet 100 were really Russian aircraft in the first place (60% of the components for the MC-21 were imported while 80% of the Superjet components were imported).
Percentage of components needed to be substituted:
Yakovlev MC-21: 60% to 70% Sukhoi Superjet: 80% to 90% Tupolev Tu-214: 13%
The Kommersant estimated that at least 60% and as much as 70% of the MC-21 need to be substituted. The number of the Superjet is mind-numbing 80% to as much as 90% (leading one to wonder to what degree it would still be the same aircraft). The publication highlighted that for the aircraft to be certified and perform commercial flights, all parts need to be obtained for the aircraft.
Photo: fifg | Shutterstock
Not all of these imported parts are necessarily from Western countries (e.g., Israel's Elbit produces some avionics); however, the vast bulk of the components are from the United States (with more from European countries and Canada). Western components from aerospace companies like Collins Aerospace, Honeywell, Pratt & Whitney, Safran, General Electric, and L3Harris can be found all through these aircraft.
Making matters worse, the Russian civil aviation is competing for limited resources with the military (which the Kremlin may be currently priotizing).
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Posts 7 Russia cutting back commercial jet engine production
In mid-December 2024, Kommersant reported, "[Russian] engine manufacturers have sharply reduced their plans for the next two year and the government is going to cut subsidies to designers." Previously, it had been planned to produce 24 engines for the Russian flagship Yakovlev MC-21 airliner (a Boeing 737 competitor). But now that plan has been slashed to a mere seven engines.
Russian turbofan:
Previous production target:
Reduced production target:
Application:
Aviadvigatel PD-8
72 "in two years"
50 "in two years"
Sukhoi Superjet
Aviadvigatel PD-14
24
7
MC-21, Tu-214 (possibly also Ilyushin Il-96)
Photo: Dmitry Ryazanov | Wikimedia Commons
As part of the Russian effort to 'Russify' its aircraft, the Superjet's PowerJet SaM146 turbo fans (built in a joint venture with France's Safran) will be substituted with the Russian PD-8 engine. Russia had planned to produce 72 of these engines in two years, but that target has now been cut to 50. Adding to the Superjet's woes is that its erstwhile engine replacement still has not been certified.
"PD-14 is a new engine, it has been certified. But the MC-21 aircraft itself is not ready yet; they promise that this will happen next year. As for the PD-8, the situation is a little different. The thing is that it is not ready yet; it was tested, but some problems arose; it was sent for revision, and now it is necessary to conduct tests again. The engine is new, so its resource is short simply because there is no practice of flying yet, 'teething problems' appear, this is normal." - Maxim Pyadushkin, Managing Director of the Air Transport Review (reported by Kommersant)
According to the managing director of the Air Transport Review (quoted by Kommersant), the MC-21 airliner is not yet ready, while the Superjet's PD-8 engine is new and also not ready. The official reason for the reduction in engine production is that it would be economically impractical to store and maintain engines at this point in time.
Russia also plans to restart production of an obsolete variant of the Soviet-era Tu-214 (a modernized version exists, but this is not favored for production). Around 13-14% of the Tu-214's components must be substituted. The reduction in PD-14 engine production is also affecting the Tu-214 program. Some Tu-214 aircraft have previously been produced with the British Rolls-Royce RB211 turbofan.
Photo: Art Konovalov | Shutterstock
According to the Kommersant, Russia has still not reduced its apparently unrealistic goal of producing 1,000 aircraft by 2030 (deliveries have simply been postponed). Kommersant sarcastically ended its article by noting the only MC-21 airliner in serial production is a plastic toy made by the Russian company Zvezda.
The lack of a Russian Traffic Collision Avoidance System
Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) is another major bottleneck in Russia's ability to produce commercial passenger aircraft. Russia's RuAviation reported, "Russia's first traffic collision avoidance system (TCAS) will be installed on civil aviation aircraft in 2023, in particular on the SJ-100 (Superjet 100). Reported by the Navigator Institute of Aviation Instrumentation (Navigator JSC), which is the developer of this system."
Photo: Yakovlev
However, this has become yet another overly optimistic Russian promise. In December 2024, Kommersant wrote it remains under development (as it has for 12 years now) and is still not certified. Without a TCAS, none of the Russian aircraft could fly.
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Posts 54 Russia's inferior and more expensive engines
When Russia proudly showed off its prototype Yakovlev MC-21 flying to Paris, it was powered by an American Pratt & Whitney PW1000G. The plan is to replace these turbofans with Russian PD-14 engines. The result (along with other component substitutions) is that the MC-21 will be 6 tons heavier, have reduced range, and be underpowered. Russia's S7 Airlines has complained that these Russian engines must have major overhauls twice a year.
And it gets worse; not only are Russian engines inferior (underpowered and requiring more maintenance), but they are also substantially more expensive. According to Kommersant, writing in August 2024, the PD-14 engines cost around double the price of the PW1000G engines. It claimed the cost of a PW1000G engine before sanctions was 800 to 900 million rubles ($7.8 to $8.8 million in January 2025 exchange rates), while the cost of a PD-14 engine is almost 1.8 billion rubles, or $17.6 million.
Photo: Yakovlev
The Superjet's SAM146 engine costs 600 to 700 million rubles ($5.9 to $6.8 million), while the PD-8 engine costs around 1 billion rubles ($9.8 million).
The Superjet no one wants
The Superjet has another problem: it is a 100-passenger aircraft. This type of aircraft only accounts for around 5% of the world's commercial passenger jet market, and Russia's largest airline, Aeroflot , is trying to cancel the contract to purchase them and only purchase the MC-21 (Aeroflot also wants to cancel plans to purchase the obsolete Tu-214). Currently, Aeroflot has ordered a total of 339 Russian aircraft (made up of Superjets, Tu-214s, and MC-21).
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Posts 7 Russia's dire need to produce airliners
Russia is facing a looming crunch as its existing Western-dominated fleet of aircraft age out or simply can't be maintained. For example, around half of Russia's Airbus A321neo/A320neo fleet is now grounded as Russia struggles to maintain the new CFM International Leap engines.
Photo: Skycolors | Shutterstock
While other countries like Brazil and China do not participate in sanctions against Russia, their aviation companies like Embraer and COMAC are hardly in a position to assist Russia . These passenger jets are similarly dependent on Western components to build their aircraft, and the US is seemingly mulling sanctions on COMAC and its C919 aircraft .
Russia is not the only country to be cut off from Western aircraft and components; North Korea, Cuba, and Iran are also forced to somehow keep their fleets operating (at least on some level) while being unable to replace the airframes. Impressively, Planespotters.net lists 21 of Iran Air's 31 aircraft as in service (with 10 parked). Meanwhile, Iran Air's website claims to have an average of 17 aircraft "ready to service their dear passengers every day."
Russia's program to produce passenger aircraft:
Number planned by 2030:
Approx. 1,000
Number produced from start of sanctions to end 2024:
7x Superjets (built with pre-sanction stocks), one testbed Il-114, one testbed Il-96
Projected fall in foreign aircraft in Russia:
738 in 2022 to 316 by 2030
Planned annual production:
140-270 (of all types)
Realistic annual production:
50-60 (per Kommersant)
The situation appears dire for Russia. Operating older aircraft is more dangerous, inefficient, and expensive (Russian airlines will require increased subsidies or will be forced to charge much higher fares). Russia will not run out of operational aircraft, but it may face a shortage of jets in the coming years.
Photo: Alan Wilson | Wikimedia Commons
Whereas Cuba and North Korea are small countries with almost no aviation sector, Russia is the world's largest country. The alternative to taking an eight-hour flight from Vladivostok to Moscow is taking a seven-day train ride. Aeroflot was once the world's most dangerous airline (around 5 times more passengers have died on Aeroflot flights than the next most dangerous airline). After the collapse of the USSR, Aeroflot quickly transitioned to Western aircraft, becoming one of the world's safest airlines.