The Houston Astros offseason strategy has a large cloud weighing over every decision they make, and no other dominoes can fall until the first big one does.
The domino is superstar free agent third baseman Alex Bregman, who has been with the Astros for the entirety of his nine-year professional career.
The $100 million deal he signed in 2019 for five seasons has expired, and after playing on one of the best bargain deals in the league for the last half decade, the franchise cornerstone understandably is looking to cash in.
Houston would love to retain the star third baseman, but it has to be at a number and length where they feel comfortable to see a good return on the investment.
Team owner Jim Crane spoke about Bregman's impending decision via Chandler Rome of The Athletic and said agent Scott Boras is going to play a key factor in whether or not Houston is able to retain the star.
"We all know Scott. He's going to do the best he can to get the most money for him if it's a place he wants to go," Crane said of Boras. "But, at some point we'd have to make a decision. We're looking now as a backup and we're exploring all the options. That's what's happening now."
Crane's comments about backup possibilities shouldn't be viewed as anything more than they are, which is simply good negotiating.
The team wants Bregman back, and by all accounts he wants to be back after a near decade long run of American League dominance, but neither side is going to concede considerably to the other.
One option which has emerged over the weekend as a backup is Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames, who reports suggest the team is interested in at third if they cannot retain Bregman.
Crane has shown in the past a willingness to let stars walk away if the price isn't right - namely Carlos Correa, Gerrit Cole, and George Springer - yet the team is still competing for championships.
This demonstrates that just because the team has a superstar who wants to be compensated as such, things aren't going to fall apart by letting him walk.
Bregman feels a little bit different than those who have left Houston before, however, and it wouldn't be a huge shock to see the Astros stretch themselves more here than they normally would.
At the same time, seeing him opt to leave for a megadeal Crane wouldn't match would be disappointing, but certainly wouldn't be much of a surprise either.