Winning ACC Championship sets up all kinds of scenarios for the Tigers
I am sure Saturday was a weird day for Clemson fans.
It started off with a gut-wrenching 17-14 loss to rival South Carolina, a game the Tigers controlled throughout, but lost it with 1:08 to play thanks to a 20-yard LaNorris Sellers touchdown run.
Around 3:30 p.m. on Saturday, the Clemson team and its fans were likely at their lowest of lows all year. It's never easy losing to the Gamecocks, especially the way South Carolina's players and fans represented themselves inside Memorial Stadium after the game. But that is another discussion for another day.
However, by 7 p.m., Clemson and its loyal fans were likely a little more joyful and probably pleasantly surprised. By way of the Syracuse Orange, the Tigers found their College Football Playoff hopes alive, again.
The Orange stunned the College Football World with a come-from-behind 42-38 win over No. 6 Miami. The win places Clemson (9-3, 7-1 ACC) into the ACC Championship Game, and one win away from earning an automatic berth into the CFP.
What does next week mean for No. 12 Clemson, who likely will fall when the new CFP rankings are released on Tuesday?
It means win and your in. But it does not mean an automatic bye to the quarterfinals, at least the way I am projecting it.
Here is how the CFP works
The CFP selection committee's rankings will determine the CFP teams and bowl matchups. The first 12-team College Football Playoff will be set on Dec. 8.
The 12-team CFP will have five automatic qualifiers. Those five teams will come from the five highest-ranked conference champions. The likely scenario is the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and the highest ranked Group of 5 Champion.
Of those five conference champions, the four-highest ranked ones will receive a bye into the quarterfinals. The seven-highest ranked teams will round out the top 12. There are no limits on how many teams a conference can have in the CFP.
The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded Nos. 1-4 and receive a first-round bye. Note that the fifth highest ranked conference champion receives an automatic bid, but it does not mean it will be the fifth seed in the CFP seeding.
Seeds 5-12 will play each other in the first round. The higher-seeded teams will play host in their first-round games. Here's a breakdown of the first-round matchups: No. 5 vs. No. 12 No. 6 vs. No. 11 No. 7 vs. No. 10 No. 8 vs. No. 9
New Year's Six bowl games will be introduced in the quarterfinal round. The semifinals will be played in bowls on a rotating basis while the national championship host site is determined through bids by prospective host sites.
The 2024 College Football Playoff (CFP) bowl games are: Quarterfinals: Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl Semifinals: Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl National Championship: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
Projecting this week's CFP Rankings
This is what I think the rankings might look like on Tuesday night. You will need to keep an eye on where Clemson is ranked and what Big 12 teams are ranked ahead of them. Oregon 12-0 Texas 11-1 Penn State 11-1 Notre Dame 11-1 Georgia 10-2 SMU 11-1 Tennessee 10-2 Ohio State 10-2 Indiana 11-1 Boise State 11-1 Miami 10-2 Alabama 9-3 Ole Miss 9-3 South Carolina 9-3
Arizona State 10-2 Iowa State 10-2 Clemson 9-3 BYU 10-2 Missouri 9-3 UNLV 10-2 Illinois 9-3 Colorado 9-3 Texas A&M 8-4 Army 10-2 Memphis 10-2
The conference champions (based off my current ranking):
ACC: SMU
Big Ten: Oregon
Big 12: Arizona State
SEC: Texas
Highest Group of 5 Champion: Boise State
Based off my current ranking and possible conference champions, here is what the CFP seedings might look like: Oregon Texas SMU Boise State Penn State Notre Dame Georgia Tennessee Ohio State Indiana Miami Arizona State
Based of my rankings, Oregon, Texas, SMU and Boise State would earn automatic byes to the quarterfinals.
Possible CFP Matchups:
For Dec. 20-21 CFP Games on highest seeds home fields
No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State
No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Ohio State at No. 8 Tennessee
What does this mean for Clemson?
Like I said earlier, the Tigers are in if they win. However, a win over SMU does not guarantee Clemson an automatic bye. It will depend on if the CFP Committee values the Tigers' win over SMU more than it will the winner of the Big 12 Championship Game.
According to my projected rankings, Arizona State and Iowa State will be ranked just ahead of Clemson in the new CFP rankings. They should all be close in the ranking when it is released on Tuesday.
I think the Tigers earning a win over a top 10 SMU team will be viewed in higher regard in the committee's eyes than whomever wins the Big 12 Championship, which should move Clemson to the No. 4 seed in the CFP and earn them an automatic spot in the quarterfinals.
Again, there is no guarantee that will happen if the Tigers win.
Another scenario that will help Clemson is Boise State losing to UNLV in the Mountain West Championship. That would eliminate a Group 5 Champion from earning a bye to the quarterfinals of the CFP.
From what we have been told in talking with our sources in the ACC and the Chick-fil-A Bowl is that the ACC Champion, if it is a top four seed, will likely play in its bowl game.
The Sugar Bowl has requested it host the SEC Champion (based on their contract), while the Fiesta Bowl will likely get the Group of 5 or the Big 12 Champion and the Rose Bowl (based on its contract) has requested it host the Big 10 Champion.
If Boise State win the Mountain West title and the Big 12 Champion is ahead of Clemson in the final rankings, then Clemson will be the No. 12 seed in the playoff and will be on the road playing somewhere on Dec. 20 or Dec. 21.
Right now, going by my projected rankings, in this scenario, Clemson will play likely at Notre Dame or Oregon, if Penn State were to upset the Ducks in the Big 10 Championship Game.
Who do Clemson fans need to pull for on Championship Weekend?
Besides, Clemson, of course, Tiger fans should be rooting for Iowa State to knock off Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship Game. UNLV to knock off Boise State (to erase a Group 5 Champion from an automatic bid) in the Mountain West Championship and then Oregon to knock off Penn State in the Big 10 Championship, because who wants to go to Oregon on Dec. 20 or 21?
2024-25 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites
All times Eastern
First round (Dec. 20-21) Friday, Dec. 20: 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN Saturday, Dec. 21: 12 p.m. | TNT Sports Saturday, Dec. 21: 4 p.m. | TNT Sports Saturday, Dec. 21: 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN Quarterfinals (Dec. 31-Jan. 1) Fiesta Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 31 | ESPN Peach Bowl: 1 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN Rose Bowl: 5 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN Sugar Bowl: 8:45 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN Semifinals (Jan. 9-10) Orange Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 9 | ESPN Cotton Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Friday, Jan. 10 | ESPN CFP National Championship 7:30 p.m. Monday, Jan. 20 | ESPN Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia