CINCINNATI -- The Bearcats basketball team is out of the Big 12 basement -- but still has a ton of work to do over the next few weeks. Arizona State comes to town on Saturday with a 1-4 conference record, just like Cincinnati.
Both teams are searching for offensive consistency with their units ranked outside the top 90 nationally in efficiency, but UC gets the luxury of having this game at home. The Sun Devils enter as clear underdogs. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has Cincinnati winning 81.4% of the time, with Cincinnati ranked 39th on KenPom (41st in NET ranking), to ASU's 64th-best mark (60th NET).
The Sun Devils are 2-1 against Cincinnati since the 1949-50 season but represent similar matchup advantages to the ones UC capitalized on against Colorado.
Cincinnati's size could overwhelm ASU in this game. The Sun Devils specialize in three-point defense as the pillar of a unit ranked 50th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
They allow just 31.3% shooting from outside (91st nationally) but give up a hefty number of deep attempts (25 per game, 294th). This is where talents like Dan Skillings Jr., Aziz Bandaogo, and Dillon Mitchell come in. They have been the backbone of UC's rebounding, which has led to 12.6 offensive rebounds per game (63rd nationally).
Cincinnati can win this game handedly if that trio eats on the glass and gets consistent second-chance opportunities. The offensive shooting woes can continue and UC still win easily by getting 10-15 more shots than ASU. The biggest roadblock to that is freshman phenom forward Jayden Quaintance (9.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, Big 12 leader in blocks at 3.1 per game).
UC's rim attackers have to be fully aware of Quaintance every possession. He leads the Sun Devils with an impressive 96.8 defensive rating and is a daunting force down low at 6-9, 225 pounds. He can't block shots if he's trailing the play though. Cincinnati has to run the floor like it did against Colorado and try to hit 15-20 fastbreak points again (16-9 advantage on Wednesday).
ASU will give them that chance. The Sun Devils rank 243rd in turnover rate (18.1% of possessions), and are 69th in possessions per game. They are going to run, and have been a bit sloppy doing it. UC forces 12.5 turnovers per game and 15-20 out of ASU should lead to victory.
Cincinnati's defense is a brutal matchup for ASU in two facets: three-point shooting, and fouling.
The Sun Devils rely on both with a worse offense than defense. ASU is shooting 37.1% from outside (50th nationally) on 24.6 attempts per game (122nd nationally) and has four rotation players shooting at least 34.8%. That would be an issue for most teams, but I'm not worried about Cincinnati.
Wes Miller has instilled arguably the best three-point defense in the country this season. The numbers are astounding: First nationally in makes allowed (4.8), sixth in attempts allowed (17.9), and second in percentage allowed (26.9%). Especially with this being at home, I just don't see how ASU makes enough threes to hit 65-plus points and get the win.
That doesn't even factor in their reliance on fouls. The Sun Devils shoot 21.4 free throws per game (89th), with 15.2 makes (102nd). Enter a UC defense that is as disciplined as they come, fouling on 20% of its possessions this season (11th-best nationally).
Lead scoring guard BJ Freeman (13.3 points, 4.2 rebounds) just went off for 48 points over the past two games, so there is that looming risk of Cincinnati's issue with individual scoring talents, but he went 7-13 from deep to power that. I would be shocked if Cincinnati lets him stay hot while getting up seven-plus outside shots.
Arizona State has had major issues against good defenses this season and that continues over the weekend.
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