As we begin this Thursday morning, it is pouring about 300 miles west of New Jersey. That is usually a good sign that wet weather will reach NJ later on. But hang on a second -- Mother Nature has other plans.
There are two elements in play in New Jersey's atmosphere. First is high pressure, a big dome of cool air to the north. Second is low pressure, that storm system sliding in from the west. Unfortunately, it is not going to quite make it -- the wettest weather will dive to the south just before reaching New Jersey.
So the almost rain-free weather continues. The drought concerns continue. The wildfire danger continues. With still no end in sight.
Temperature-wise, Thursday will be especially cool and blah. And then a warming trend will kick in for the weekend. Thermometers will swing from 5 degrees below normal to 5 degrees above normal.
It is another chilly start, with morning temperatures mainly in the 20s and 30s. The coast is a bit more insulated, with temps in the 40s.
Highs will only reach the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Unfortunately, we lose Wednesday's brilliant sunshine, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies keeping things "blah" and unsettled. Winds will be light, and weather will be almost completely dry.
The best chance of a shower or sprinkle Thursday will be in southwestern New Jersey between late afternoon and early evening. Again, do not expect much here -- maybe a trace of precipitation, tops. Umbrellas will likely be unnecessary.
Thursday night will stay mostly cloudy, with chilly low temperatures bottoming out in the 30s.
One more note: A Coastal Flood Advisory continues for the Jersey Shore through both Thursday and Friday morning. Each high tide cycle may produce minor category flooding of tidal waterways.
Friday will feature improving weather, as high pressure takes control of our atmosphere again.
The cloud cover should break apart early Friday morning, leading to abundant sunshine by the afternoon. It will become breezy. And also a bit warmer, with highs climbing to about 55 to 60 degrees.
Not too shabby. Just remember, with a reduction in dew points (humidity) and an increase in wind speed comes another increase in fire danger.
Sunny, breezy, and dry. It will be fairly mild with highs near 60 degrees. Can't complain too much about a forecast like that in mid-November.
There are two and only two opportunities for some raindrops next week. A fast-moving back of showers early Monday morning, especially to the north. And then potentially the remnants of a tropical development late week. (Don't get too excited about that "tropical" explainer -- current models only paint a quarter-inch to half-inch of rain over New Jersey at the moment.)
Temperatures will fluctuate a bit between the 60s and 50s next week. Forecast models seem to be hinting at a more pronounced cold snap for Thanksgiving week. We're talking about highs only in the 30s. Maybe some snowflakes too. 'Tis the season, right?