By Roland Li, San Francisco Chronicle The Tribune Content Agency
San Francisco faces potentially "deep" and "terrifying" bus and train service cuts, as well as cable car closures as soon as next summer without new funding sources, Jeffrey Tumlin, executive director of the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, said Wednesday.
The agency's fiscal outlook darkened in the past week with the failure of Proposition L, which would have taxed ride-hailing services to generate an estimated $25 million annually for transit. The return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House and likely Republican control of Congress also means "there is no chance there is additional federal relief coming," Tumlin said. California's budget deficit also dampens the chances of state aid.
Muni hasn't proposed cuts and hopes to avoid them, but on Wednesday staff presented potential options to a working group of stakeholders. Muni faces an annual deficit estimated between $239 million and $322 million by fiscal year 2026-2027. Its annual budget is $1.4 billion.
Suspending three cable car lines - California, Mason and Hyde - and the F Market streetcars would save an estimated $33 million annually but could have severe negative effects for tourism, staff said.
Cutting service frequency on the busiest lines such as the 1, 14 and 38 buses and six lettered light rail lines by up to 50% could save up to $71 million annually. Buses could come every 10 minutes instead of every 5 to 6 minutes, while light rail could shift from every 10 to 15 minutes to every 12 to 20 minutes, staff said.
Suspending bus routes with lower ridership including the 1X, 2, 6, 12 Short, 16, 21, 27 and 31 lines would save an estimated $32 million a year. Suspending bus routes in hilly neighborhoods mostly on the southern half of the city could lead to $31 million in additional savings.
Cutting nighttime service could generate $14 million in savings.
"The service cuts I give are not planned. These are what we want to avoid," Tumlin said. But the cuts are "potentially real."
"If we fail to come to an agreement and we fail to win (more funding), we will need to make massive service cuts," Tumlin said.
Ridership reached a post-pandemic high in September of 521,000 weekday boardings, 74% of 2019 levels. Weekend ridership was 92% recovered. The data excludes streetcars and cable cars.
The Muni working group will also meet in the coming months to generate ideas for boosting revenue. Transit officials hope to place a 2026 transit funding measure on the ballot, but an earlier effort to do so failed this year in Sacramento.
Reach Roland Li: [email protected]; X: @rolandlisf